Bangladesh new envoy arriving amidst hints on Rahman visit & rumours of 'putsch'
Jayanta Roy Chowdhury
New Delhi, Sep 29 (UNI) Amidst hints by Dhaka that it would like to schedule its Prime Minister Tarique Rahman's off-and-on visit in November this year, former Bangladesh foreign secretary Asad Alam Siam is likely to take over as the neighbouring country's next High Commissioner to New Delhi at the beginning of next month.
However, the uncertainty over Rahman's visit, earlier cancelled at the last moment in August, remains. Partly because of his party colleagues' constant anti-India rhetoric, partly because the centrepiece of discussions, the Ganges Water Treaty, is unlikely to be finalised anytime soon, but also because the situation in Bangladesh itself is quite chaotic with worsening law and order, gas shortages crippling industry and electricity outages hitting most parts of the country.
"There are two months left for the Ganga water treaty to lapse … time is running out; the treaty ends in December," Veena Sikri, former Indian High Commissioner to Dhaka, pointed out to UNI, adding that Bangladesh also needs to hold talks on trade issues, which had seen restrictions issued by both sides during the Yunus government's tenure, post the ouster of Sheikh Hasina. Officials here expect the new high commissioner to take forward talks on these two issues before Rahman can visit India. Another problem for the visit is fears in Dhaka circles of a 'Putsch' by Islamist elements who could well co-opt not only the student's party NCP but also the ruling BNP's till now 'loyal opposition', the Bangladesh Jamaat-i-Islami, into toppling the Rahman government and bringing in a "more radically revolutionary" government.
"There was always the possibility of a hard-core Islamic attempt to take over at Dhaka, and the inability of the current government to check a deteriorating law and order and economic situation may well precipitate it," Shantanu Mukharji, a South Asia expert and former National Security Advisor to Mauritius, told UNI. Siam, who was till now kept cooling his heels by the Ministry of External Affairs even though his name had been announced by Dhaka quite some time back, possibly as retaliation for the treatment meted out to India's minister ranking High Commissioner, Dinesh Trivedi, appointed earlier this year, is believed to be pro-BNP in his political leanings. "He too may be given a ministerial rank just as they did for several high commissioners in the past, such as Tariq Karim and Syed Muazzam Ali," MEA officials said.
Meanwhile, officials here said the current High Commissioner Riaz Hamidullah's departure will be noticed in New Delhi for reasons extending well beyond protocol. During his tenure, he developed an unusually broad network among journalists, strategic analysts, think tanks, diplomats, bureaucrats, cultural circles, and politicians. Yet his tenure coincided with one of the most difficult periods in modern India-Bangladesh relations.
The deterioration in relations began after Sheikh Hasina's ouster in August 2024 and the installation of the Muhammad Yunus-led interim dministration. India's concerns about the direction of the transition, the treatment of minorities and the Awami League, anti-India rhetoric, which was often channelised into attacks on Indian missions, on the one hand, and the Bangladeshi regime's fears surrounding the continuing presence of Hasina in India, saw relations falling into what can best be called a "deep freeze."
After the BNP returned to power under Tarique Rahman in February 2026, despite hopes, the relationship did not immediately recover. Instead, Dhaka continued to review agreements with India, with political rhetoric remaining equally sharp. The irony is that Riaz himself was widely regarded in Delhi as someone who understood India unusually well and was able to communicate across political and institutional divides.
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