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IMD predicts 'normal' rainfall this year

IMD predicts 'normal' rainfall this year

New Delhi, Apr 16 (UNI) The monsoon seasonal rainfall over the country this year is likely to be 97 per cent, which is under the 'normal' category, India Meteorological Department (IMD)said on Monday.



The weather office, in its long range forecast for 2018 South West Monsoon seasonal (June-September) rainfall said, "the monsoon seasonal rainfall is likely to be 97 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of +- five per cent."

The forecast also suggests maximum probability for normal monsoon rainfall (96-104 per cent) of LPA and low probability for deficient rainfall during the season.

Addressing a press conference here, Dr K J Ramesh, DG of Meteorology of IMD, said,"this would be the third consecutive normal monsoon." The monsoon will hit Kerala by the end of May or first week of June,and will spread across the country in a period of around 45 days, he said.

Further update of the monsoon will be given in June as part of the second stage forecast, that is likely to include regional information, Dr. Ramesh said.

According to IMD, the country would not face monsoon deficit this year, there are good chances of normal rainfall with 42 percent chances of normal and 12 percent chances of above normal rainfall. “There is less probability of deficient monsoon,' said IMD chief.

“The moderate La Nina conditions developed in the equatorial Pacific during last year started weakening in the early part of this year and currently have turned to weak La Nina conditions,” according to the IMD statement.

La Nina is pattern related to weather, that brings equatorial Pacific Ocean temperatures,rainfall patterns and winds closer to average.

It is to be noted that 40 to 45 percent of agricultutral land in the country is under irrigation, while the rest is monsoon dependent, making normal monsoon essential for agriculture.

As per the Met department 90 per cent or lesser amount of rainfall is considered as very less, whereas 95 per cent is considered less than normal while 96 to 104 per cent rainfall is considered as normal and 105 to 110 per cent is above normal.

In 2017, 72 percent of the total area received normal rainfall, 13 per cent area received above normal and 15 per cent received less than normal rainfall.

UNI APS / VT 1909

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