Tuesday, Apr 23 2024 | Time 23:01 Hrs(IST)
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Business Economy


FICCI forecasts GDP growth rate at 7.7 pc

New Delhi, May 30 (UNI) Latest round of FICCI’s Economic Outlook Survey puts across a median GDP growth forecast of 7.7 per cent for the fiscal year 2016-17.
The growth in 2016-17 is expected to be supported by an improvement in the agricultural and industrial sector performance. Prediction of a good monsoon after two consecutive years of sub-optimal rainfall backs the improved outlook in the current fiscal.
According to the survey results, agriculture sector is expected to record a median growth of 2.8 per cent in 2016-17, with a minimum and maximum range of 1.6 per cent and 3.5 per cent respectively. Industrial growth is anticipated to grow by 7.1 per cent in 2016-17, while services sector growth is estimated at 9.6 per cent.
The survey was conducted during April-May 2016 among economists belonging to the industry, banking and financial services sector. The economists were asked to provide forecast for key macro-economic variables for the year 2016-17 as well as for Q4 (January-March) FY16 and Q1 (April-June) FY17.
The median growth forecast for IIP has been put at 3.5 per cent for the year 2016-17, with a minimum and maximum range of 3.0 per cent and 4.5 per cent respectively.
The outlook of the participating economists on inflation remained moderate. The median forecast for Wholesale Price Index based inflation rate for 2016-17 has been put at 2.2 per cent, with a minimum and maximum range of -1.3 per cent and 2.9 per cent respectively. The Consumer Price Index has a median forecast of 5.1 per cent for 2016-17, with a minimum and maximum range of 4.5 per cent and 5.5 per cent respectively.
Views of the economists were sought on whether the government will be able to achieve the fiscal deficit target of 3.5 per cent in 2016-17. The government has been serious about treading on the path of fiscal consolidation and maintained its credibility by meeting the targeted fiscal deficit of 3.9 per cent for the financial year 2015-16.
A majority of the participating economists believe that the fiscal deficit target for the year 2016-17 seems achievable. It was pointed out that some of the enabling factors would include expectation of a normal rainfall, improved buoyancy in domestic growth leading to higher revenue collection through direct and indirect tax collections and government continuing with subsidy rationalization. However, it was also pointed out that it would be important to realize the non-tax revenue target for achieving the targeted fiscal deficit to GDP ratio.
Realising the targeted receipts from disinvestment and spectrum sales would be a critical factor.
UNI ADP SW SB 1934
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