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India


BJP's 2019 poll plans guided by Opp. challenge, fear of anti-incumbency

By Nirendra Dev
BJP's 2019 poll plans guided by Opp. challenge, fear of anti-incumbency

New Delhi, Apr 23 (UNI) Out of 109 seats BJP won in 2014 - from states like Bihar, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat - the BJP poll strategists today feel the tally can only dip down in 2019 Lok Sabha polls. Amid clamour for unity among opposition parties especially the regional forces, the BJP strategists say saffron party's aggressive electoral drive and launch of advanced plans for 2019 battle is "not guided" by mere over ambition. It is strictly due to "hard political compulsions" because the saffron outfit fears that the grand opposition unity - as being mooted by the likes of Mamata Banerjee - could make things tougher. Moreover, the BJP strategists have realised that even as the party recorded a massive electoral victory - 325 seats - in crucial states like Uttar Pradesh, the fact that vote share has remained intact even for Mayawati-led Bahujan Samaj Party in the country's most populous state would need to be handled more effectively in near future. "It is not being over ambitious. We have real and hard political compulsions to start ground work well and in advance. There will be local anti-incumbency factor in many Lok Sabha seats across the country. The law of the average would be working in many constituencies," a senior party leader from Uttar Pradesh told UNI. Moreover, as the party is in power in most of the states in central, western and northern Indian states -- there will be "double anti-incumbency" - one against the sitting MP and the other against the respective state governments. Despite having faced a crushing defeat the BSP of Ms Mayawati has been the only party in UP which has increased its number of votes and vote share in percentage terms since 2014 Lok Sabha elections. The votes polled in favour of BSP in March 2017 assembly polls increased to 22.2 per cent, which is 2.43 per cent more than what it got in the last general elections of 2014. "The fact that BJP's vote share was almost same at 41.4 per cent as in 2014 Lok Sabha polls and BSP's was little more than in 2014 - means Mayawati cannot be wished away. That means she has not lost her traditional vote share. Hence, we ought to be more careful in handling BSP as a political rival," the source said. Similar yardstick ought to be applied to other regional leaders as well, BJP poll strategists feel. In fact, many BJP leaders say the saffron party's decline in the key cow belt state of Uttar Pradesh was directly linked to BSP's rise. Hence, leaders point out that in the past too top leaders like Rajnath Singh have flayed party's decision to ally with the then Kanshi Ram-Mayawati led party in 1990s. In view of changed political situation, the BJP poll managers now say there is "lot of merit" in party chief Amit Shah urging each senior leader including Union Ministers dedicating at least 15 days work for booth level contacts. "The party leaders are apprehensive that anti-incumbency wave in 2019 would be stronger in traditionally BJP strongholds. We, therefore need to be more careful," a party insider said. More UNI DEVN ADG 1016

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